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The cold European winter of 2005-2006 assisted the spread and persistence of H5N1 influenza virus in wild birds.

机译:2005-2006年欧洲寒冷的冬季有助于H5N1流感病毒在野禽中的传播和持久性。

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摘要

In January 2006, a major cold spell affected Europe, coinciding with an increase of H5N1 influenza virus detected in wild birds, mostly dead mute swans, starting along the River Danube and the Mediterranean coast line. Subsequently H5N1 detections in wild birds were concentrated in central and western parts of Europe, reaching a peak in mid February. We tested the hypothesis that the geographic distribution of these H5N1 infections was modulated by the long-term wintering line, the 0 °C isotherm marking the limit beyond which areas are largely unsuitable for wintering waterfowl. Given the particularly cold 2005-2006 European winter, we also considered the satellite-derived contemporary frost conditions. This brought us to select the long-term maximum rather than the mean January 0 °C isotherm as the best approximation for the 2005-2006 wintering line. Our analysis shows that H5N1 detection sites were closer to the wintering line than would be expected by chance, even when the geographic distribution of water bird wintering sites was accounted for. We argue that partial frost conditions in water bodies are conducive to bird congregation, and this may have enhanced H5N1 transmission and local spread. Because the environmental virus load also would build up in these hot spots, H5N1 virus may have readily persisted during the spring, at least in cooler areas. We conclude that H5N1 introduction, spread, and persistence in Europe may have been enhanced by the cold 2005-2006 winter.
机译:2006年1月,一场严重的寒冷影响了欧洲,与此同时,从多瑙河和地中海沿岸开始,在野生鸟类(主要是死死的疣鼻天鹅)中发现的H5N1流感病毒增多。随后,在野生鸟类中检测到的H5N1集中在欧洲中部和西部,在2月中旬达到高峰。我们检验了以下假设,即这些H5N1感染的地理分布受长期越冬线的调节,0°C等温线标志着极限,超过该极限,该区域基本上不适合越冬水禽。考虑到2005-2006年欧洲冬季特别寒冷,我们还考虑了卫星衍生的现代霜冻条件。这使我们选择了长期最大值而不是平均1月0°C等温线作为2005-2006年越冬线的最佳近似值。我们的分析表明,即使考虑到水禽越冬地点的地理分布,H5N1检测点也比偶然预期的更接近越冬线。我们认为水体的局部霜冻条件有利于鸟类聚集,这可能增强了H5N1的传播和局部扩散。由于环境病毒的负荷也会在这些热点中积聚,因此H5N1病毒可能在春季至少在较凉的地区很容易持续存在。我们得出结论,由于寒冷的2005-2006年冬季,H5N1在欧洲的引入,传播和持久性可能得到了增强。

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